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WanderNerd
Check a flight

Connection Risk

Will a late arrival eat your layover?

Give us the flight you are arriving on and how long you have between flights. We will show you how often that flight has landed late enough to spend your connection.

The flight you are arriving on. AS331, AS 331, and Alaska 331 all work.

minutes

Scheduled arrival to scheduled departure.

left after landing

We use 30 minutes by default. Change it if you want more or less time left once your incoming flight is on the ground. This is your preference, not an airport rule.

How this works

Say you have a 58-minute layover and you want half an hour still on the clock once you are off the plane. That leaves 28 minutes your incoming flight can burn before it starts eating into the part you wanted to keep.

So we check how often that flight historically arrived 28 or more minutes late. That is the number. Your incoming flight is the part we are measuring.

What we are not measuring

We know how late the incoming flight arrived. We do not know your gates, your walking time, the boarding cutoff for your next flight, terminal changes, security, immigration, whether your bags make it, whether the next flight is late itself, or whether your airline will protect the connection. Airports enjoy keeping that interesting.

So this is one input into your decision, not a verdict on it. The full method.

Questions people actually ask

Is a one-hour layover long enough?
Depends entirely on which flight is bringing you in. An hour behind a flight that lands within a few minutes of schedule is a different hour than one behind a flight that runs 40 minutes late twice a month. Put the flight number in above and you will see which one you have.
Why do you only ask about the incoming flight?
Because that is the part the historical data can speak to. Your incoming flight's arrival record is measurable. Your walk between gates is not, at least not from U.S. DOT records, and we would rather answer one question properly than four badly.
Is this the minimum connection time?
No. Airlines and airports publish official minimum connection times, and this is not one of them. The 30 minutes we start with is just how much layover you might reasonably want left after landing. Change it to whatever suits how you travel.
What if my incoming flight is cancelled?
Then the connection is gone and no amount of buffer helps, which is why we report cancellation rates separately instead of blending them into the delay numbers.

Historical flight data: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, June 2025 – May 2026. Data through May 2026. How we calculate this.