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Flight Reliability

AA 4538 · American Airlines

New York → Washington (JFK–DCA)92% of its flights flew this route. The rest (LGA–DCA) are included in these numbers.

76
Usually Fine
WanderNerd Reliability Score
79%
Arrive within 15 minutes
4 min
Average arrival delay
2.9%
Cancelled
5 min early
Median arrival delay

Based on 341 historical flights. Data through May 2026.

What the data says

Morning-you made the right choice.

AA 4538 departing between 9 AM–12 PM arrived on time 100% of the time, versus 75% between 3–6 PM.

Friday is doing you no favors.

AA 4538 arrived on time 89% of the time on Tuesdays and just 73% on Fridays. That gap is worth planning around.

Better than the JFK–DCA route average.

AA 4538 arrived on time 79% of the time, versus 68% across the JFK–DCA route.

Slipping a little lately.

AA 4538 arrived on time 70% of the time over the last three months in the data, compared with 74% in the three months before that.

The breakdown

On-time by weekday
  • Mon89%(46 flights)
  • Tue89%(47 flights)
  • Wed74%(50 flights)
  • Thu76%(46 flights)
  • Fri73%(45 flights)
  • Sat78%(46 flights)
  • Sun75%(51 flights)
On-time by departure window
  • 6–9 AM78%(278 flights)
  • 9 AM–12 PM100%(25 flights)
  • 3–6 PM75%(28 flights)
On-time trend by month
82%
May

Jun 83% → May 82% on time

On-time arrival percentage by month
MonthOn-time percentageFlights
June 202583%29
July 202580%30
August 2025100%30
September 202593%30
October 202577%30
November 202583%29
December 202571%24
January 202693%28
February 202658%26
March 202658%31
April 202670%27
May 202682%17
Departures on time
89%
Diverted
0%
Flights flown
331
Months covered
12

Same route, other flights

Keep nerding

Based on 341 historical flights, because apparently we checked. Historical flight data: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, June 2025 – May 2026. Data through May 2026. How we calculate this.