Flight Reliability
AS 451 · Alaska Airlines
New Orleans → Seattle (MSY–SEA)
76
Usually Fine
WanderNerd Reliability Score
- 70%
- Arrive within 15 minutes
- 8 min
- Average arrival delay
- 0.6%
- Cancelled
- 1 min
- Median arrival delay
Based on 314 historical flights. Data through May 2026.
What the data says
Morning-you made the right choice.
AS 451 departing between 6–9 AM arrived on time 71% of the time, versus 56% between 6–9 PM.
Mondays have been rough.
AS 451 arrived on time 78% of the time on Fridays and just 60% on Mondays. That gap is worth planning around.
Lagging the Alaska Airlines network.
AS 451 arrived on time 70% of the time, versus 80% across the Alaska Airlines network.
Ticking up lately.
AS 451 arrived on time 75% of the time over the last three months in the data, compared with 71% in the three months before that.
The breakdown
- Mon60%(47 flights)
- Tue78%(41 flights)
- Wed68%(38 flights)
- Thu68%(47 flights)
- Fri78%(46 flights)
- Sat71%(45 flights)
- Sun67%(48 flights)
- 6–9 AM71%(280 flights)
- 6–9 PM56%(32 flights)
77%
May
Jun 48% → May 77% on time
| Month | On-time percentage | Flights |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | 48% | 29 |
| July 2025 | 71% | 31 |
| August 2025 | 61% | 28 |
| September 2025 | 86% | 21 |
| October 2025 | 67% | 30 |
| November 2025 | 73% | 30 |
| December 2025 | 74% | 31 |
| February 2026 | 65% | 17 |
| March 2026 | 54% | 28 |
| April 2026 | 93% | 30 |
| May 2026 | 77% | 31 |
- Departures on time
- 74%
- Diverted
- 0%
- Flights flown
- 312
- Months covered
- 12
Same route, other flights
Keep nerding
Based on 314 historical flights, because apparently we checked. Historical flight data: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, June 2025 – May 2026. Data through May 2026. How we calculate this.