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Flight Reliability

F9 2954 · Frontier Airlines

Tampa → Washington (TPA–IAD)

64
A Little Dicey
WanderNerd Reliability Score
75%
Arrive within 15 minutes
6 min
Average arrival delay
4.8%
Cancelled
7 min early
Median arrival delay

Based on 187 historical flights. Data through May 2026.

What the data says

Morning flights do better here.

F9 2954 departing between 6–9 AM arrived on time 92% of the time, versus 62% between 12–3 PM.

Saturdays have been rough.

F9 2954 arrived on time 82% of the time on Fridays and just 59% on Saturdays. That gap is worth planning around.

Lagging the TPA–IAD route.

F9 2954 arrived on time 75% of the time, versus 83% across the TPA–IAD route.

Keep a backup plan handy.

F9 2954 was cancelled 4.8% of the time. Typical for U.S. flights is around 1–2%.

The breakdown

On-time by weekday
  • Mon69%(36 flights)
  • Tue—(2 flights)
  • Wed—(1 flights)
  • Thu76%(45 flights)
  • Fri82%(38 flights)
  • Sat59%(17 flights)
  • Sun77%(39 flights)
On-time by departure window
  • 3–6 AM—(2 flights)
  • 6–9 AM92%(25 flights)
  • 9 AM–12 PM88%(33 flights)
  • 12–3 PM62%(60 flights)
  • 3–6 PM72%(47 flights)
  • 6–9 PM73%(11 flights)
On-time trend by month
79%
Mar

Jun 42% → Mar 79% on time

On-time arrival percentage by month
MonthOn-time percentageFlights
June 202542%19
July 202540%20
August 202565%20
September 2025100%17
October 202585%13
November 202573%15
December 202586%21
January 202694%16
March 202679%14
Departures on time
82%
Diverted
0%
Flights flown
178
Months covered
12

Same route, other flights

Keep nerding

Based on 187 historical flights, because apparently we checked. Historical flight data: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, June 2025 – May 2026. Data through May 2026. How we calculate this.