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Route Reliability

Madison → Chicago

MSN–ORD · 108 miles · Dane County Regional Airport to Chicago O'Hare International Airport

60
A Little Dicey
WanderNerd Reliability Score
71%
Arrive within 15 minutes
19 min
Average arrival delay
3.4%
Cancelled
4,684
Flights in the data

Data through May 2026.

Who flies it best

Ranked by on-time arrivals. Historical results, not predictions.

  1. 1.American Airlines73%1,970 flights
  2. 2.United Airlines69%2,714 flights

What the data says

Morning flights do better here.

MSN–ORD flights departing between 3–6 AM arrived on time 89% of the time, versus 49% between 3–6 PM.

Tuesday comes out ahead.

A small edge: 74% on time on Tuesdays against 68% on Sundays.

American Airlines has a slight edge here.

American Airlines arrived on time 73% of the time on this route; United Airlines managed 69%.

Keep a backup plan handy.

This route was cancelled 3.4% of the time. Typical for U.S. flights is around 1–2%.

Best historical flights

Ranked by on-time arrivals, minimum 100 flights. Past performance, not a promise.

Top flights by on-time rate

More flights on this route

The breakdown

On-time by weekday
  • Mon70%(662 flights)
  • Tue74%(635 flights)
  • Wed72%(641 flights)
  • Thu70%(668 flights)
  • Fri69%(650 flights)
  • Sat72%(589 flights)
  • Sun68%(674 flights)
On-time by departure window
  • 3–6 AM89%(353 flights)
  • 6–9 AM80%(1032 flights)
  • 9 AM–12 PM76%(813 flights)
  • 12–3 PM73%(964 flights)
  • 3–6 PM49%(940 flights)
  • 6–9 PM66%(414 flights)
  • 9 PM–12 AM—(3 flights)
On-time trend by month
76%
May

Jun 70% → May 76% on time

On-time arrival percentage by month
MonthOn-time percentageFlights
June 202570%337
July 202568%329
August 202573%363
September 202582%371
October 202564%411
November 202572%362
December 202563%355
January 202664%358
February 202674%329
March 202670%348
April 202672%473
May 202676%483

Keep nerding

Based on 4,684 historical flights, because apparently we checked. Historical flight data: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, June 2025 – May 2026. Data through May 2026. How we calculate this.