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WanderNerd

Route Reliability

Minneapolis → San Francisco

MSPSFO · 1,589 miles · Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport to San Francisco International Airport

79
Usually Fine
WanderNerd Reliability Score
75%
Arrive within 15 minutes
7 min
Average arrival delay
0.7%
Cancelled
1,917
Flights in the data

Data through May 2026.

Who flies it best

Ranked by on-time arrivals. Historical results, not predictions.

  1. 1.Delta Air Lines75%1,445 flights
  2. 2.United Airlines74%472 flights

What the data says

The 3–6 PM departure wins.

MSP–SFO flights departing between 3–6 PM arrived on time 79% of the time, versus 70% between 9 PM–12 AM.

Sunday scaries are real for this one.

MSP–SFO flights arrived on time 82% of the time on Tuesdays. On Sundays: 67%.

Not much between Delta Air Lines and United Airlines.

On this route they all land within 74% to 75% on time. Pick on schedule and price.

Slipping a little lately.

MSP–SFO flights arrived on time 65% of the time over the last three months in the data, compared with 70% in the three months before that.

Best historical flights

Ranked by on-time arrivals, minimum 100 flights. Past performance, not a promise.

Top flights by on-time rate

More flights on this route

The breakdown

On-time by weekday
  • Mon73%(284 flights)
  • Tue82%(253 flights)
  • Wed76%(273 flights)
  • Thu76%(288 flights)
  • Fri72%(292 flights)
  • Sat80%(231 flights)
  • Sun67%(279 flights)
On-time by departure window
  • 6–9 AM76%(308 flights)
  • 9 AM–12 PM74%(550 flights)
  • 12–3 PM(1 flights)
  • 3–6 PM79%(513 flights)
  • 6–9 PM71%(323 flights)
  • 9 PM–12 AM70%(205 flights)
On-time trend by month
44%
May

Jun 81% → May 44% on time

On-time arrival percentage by month
MonthOn-time percentageFlights
June 202581%180
July 202576%193
August 202582%181
September 202589%157
October 202579%170
November 202582%147
December 202560%134
January 202677%141
February 202674%129
March 202685%137
April 202667%166
May 202644%165

Based on 1,917 historical flights, because apparently we checked. Historical flight data: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, June 2025 – May 2026. Data through May 2026. How we calculate this.